Taiwan and Hong Kong
1) They certainly learnt their lessons from the SARS episode of 2003. Who could have forgotten it? If I forget SARS, may my right hand forget its skill. Taiwan and the people of Hong Kong were given no time and acted quickly. Memories were evoked. Old plans dusted off and put into action. Within a week or two, everyone donned a mask and washed their hands obsessively. Borders were made to close. Visitors from affected regions are isolated. Temperature check-points were set up. It was as if they've rehearsed for this outbreak - and in a sense, they did.
They then stick to their hard-learnt experience with utmost stubbornness. Outside and WHO experts offered their kind advice: "face masks don't work" or "closing borders won't work" they said, but to little effect. Did the same package of measures not overcome SARS 17 years ago? the people of Hong Kong and Taiwan told themselves. Is SARS not a coronavirus too?
Now, almost two months in, Hong Kong and Taiwan are held up across the world as beacons of success against Covid-19. They feel vindicated. Rightly so: bragging rights have to be earned and have been earned.
2) But one thing did not go according to plan. In Taiwan and Hong Kong's lived experience, SARS peaked in two months and didn't quite spread beyond East Asia (except Toronto). They went in expecting a sprint. Now, as Covid-19 broke out in the West and could soon spread across Africa, they are gradually waking up to a reality that it's going to be a long war of attrition.
Can they - metaphorically - fight on the beaches and the streets, for months after months, until the day a vaccine comes to the rescue? Don't get me wrong, I am not doubting the will to fight on. Morale is high, and the recent vindication gave it another boost. On the other hand, a vaccine could take months or years to find.
3) Of the two, Hong Kong is richer but probably more vulnerable. Most of its medical and health supplies, including the humble surgical mask, are imported. As Covid-19 rampage across the globe, procurement would only become harder by the day. There have been investment in local production, but it's unclear to what extent it will be able to meet demand.
The mainstay of its economy - finance, professional services, and tourism - will be badly hit by international travel restrictions and the coronavirus slump. After all, what is an international business hub if people cannot meet there?
One day Covid-19 might have become endemic in many countries. The costs of carrying on with the defence could feel prohibitive to some. By then Hong Kong may have to debate whether it should come to terms with the situation instead - and that debate could be an ugly one.
4) Taiwan, on the other hand, is better placed for a long fight. It has a diversified industry structure with a strong manufacturing base. It can make most medical supplies, and it's always easier to expand existing industries there than to build them up from scratch. Even if travel restrictions persist and the world enters a period of depression, the island probably can and will continue to export its semiconductors and pineapples.
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(to be continued - will try to discuss the response across the West in general and in the UK more specifically)
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(Postscript on 24 February 2025: An anecdotal observation I had back in March 2020 was that, from a cursory glance, it appeared that many senior public health officials in the West spent sizeable parts of their careers in less developed parts of the world, which may had an impact on their perception of what was possible. But, as it turns out, Part 2 was never written, and it probably never will be.)
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