Wednesday 16 December 2020

點解我寫粵文

呢一兩年都有朋友問,最近做咩寫多咗粵文,或者係關於廣東話嘅嘢嘅?

最簡單嘅答案,係因為粵語入文可以幫我哋自強。無論我哋嘅普通話或者英文學得幾咁精通, 我哋用白話文、英文寫嘢嘅時候, 總有一種患得患失,驚母語使用者覺得我哋唔夠符合文法嘅感覺。

例如呢十幾年白話文又興返一種文言文常見嘅手法:將啲形容詞當動詞用。例如《七里香》:「那飽滿的稻穗/幸福了這個季節」。我依家會諗,如果呢句唔係出自臺灣(或者大陸人)手,而係香港人寫,肯定有多啲人話寫得唔好,唔符合文法啦。

又例如英國有間火車飛公司trainline,佢幾年前喺倫敦地鐵賣廣告嘅標語「I am train」,其實都係唔合文法。如果出自一間香港公司,喺香港地鐵登,應該都有唔少人會笑佢。但呢句嘢登喺英國,英國人講嘅點會唔係英文呢?

有時,同樣係唔合文法嘅嘢,母語人嗰啲係「口誤」、「破格」,外人嘅就係學藝未精。

當然,為咗商貿文化交流起見,香港人應該至少學好兩文三語。呢個絕對應該做、值得做、快啲做。但係我亦都覺得,去到最尾,俾香港人有以自立,無拘無束咁表達自己嘅,就只係得(港式)粵語。寫喺紙上面、打喺螢幕上面,就係粵文,同埋佢未係咁完善嘅拼音(亦即係所謂Chinglish)。

對《粵切字改革方案》嘅一啲諗法

今日喺旺角見到呢張海報。我覺得好有創意,亦都相當完善,真係好佩服作者。但正所謂「無所因而特創者難為功,有所本而求精者易為力」,我亦都有啲感想,希望可以大家分享吓:

「粵切字改革方案」,2020年12月16日攝於旺角

(1)個表入面有兩種注音嘅方法。第一種,就係用大家都好熟悉嘅拉丁字母;第二種,就係用唔同嘅字或者係邊旁去表示一啲聲母同韻母,再好似韓文咁將佢哋嵌一個方塊入面。

其實呢,如果係為咗有一個大家都接受嘅標準去表達、交流啲發音,用拉丁字母已經好足夠,亦都方便已經識得一種歐洲語言或者漢語拼音嘅人去學。

當然,如果係想順便創製一個系統去寫一啲廣東話入面而家「有音冇字」嘅字,就好似韓國嘅《訓民正音》咁,咁又唔同講法。至少,咁樣創造出來嘅方塊字,係的確比較容易融入粵文嘅。但如果係咁嘅話,或者亦都應該搵一個方法,將個聲調都放埋入個方塊裏面。

(2)其實我覺得,粵語拼音應該盡量係基於香港民間咁多年來已經形成咗嘅習慣。咁樣先至容易學,容易學先至多人學得識,先至可以普及。

(3)依家唔精確嘅嘢當然要改善:例如貝澳個「貝」同天水圍個「水」明明唔同韻,但而家好多時都係用「ui」去寫,呢啲就應該要分返開。

(4)但係,點解要用/j/去標示「央」嘅聲母?我知,粵拼(Jyutping)、國際音標( IPA )同埋德文都係用/j/。但如果我哋睇返個現實嘅情況,除咗乙明邨(Jat Min Chuen )之類嘅個別例子,香港人其實係習慣用/y/嘅:例如元朗嘅元,大家都會諗到「yuen」而唔係「jyun」。

我覺得,如果已經習慣用嘅用法冇問題,就應該繼續用。所以,用/y/會好啲。

(5)如果用咗/y/做聲母,咁為咗避免混淆,或者亦都應該用個表而家冇用嘅/ue/去表示漢語拼音同德文裏面嘅「ü」,而唔係用/yu/。

咁樣仲有兩個好處:一嚟,係香港人平時都係咁用——例如「雪」,通常都會用「suet」而唔會係「syut」;二嚟,亦都有先例係咁做:例如德文打唔到ü嘅時候,就會用「ue」。

(6)因為同樣嘅道理,「z」、「c」可以用香港比較常用嘅「j」、「ch」(或者「ts」)代替。

(7)其實寫粵文真係好難,一唔小心就會夾雜咗啲白話文入去。就好似隻一直都住喺陸地上面嘅鴨,要逼自己學返識游水咁。

臉書連結

Sunday 13 December 2020

協音並非粵語專利

眾所周知,粵語歌詞要求協音(粵語所謂「啱音」),國語卻不用。

之所以如此,我見過至少兩個解釋:

(1)比起有六調的粵語,只有四聲的國語很難配合旋律,於是便不追求協音。
(2)粵語六調裏面,只有兩個(陰上、陽上,即「九」、「五」的音)有滑音,其他的都是同一音高貫徹始終。國語的四聲,卻有三個有滑音(只有第一聲陰平不是),所以協音無從談起。

那個才對呢?單單比較粵語和國語,是很難有結果的。

於是我想,不知道越南語的歌詞又是否追求協音呢?一方面,越南語有六調八聲,也分陰陽平上去入,可以和粵語聲調一一對應;另一方面,越南語的六調裏面,只有兩個沒有滑音:通常翻譯為「平聲」和「玄聲」、分別對應粵語的陰平、陽平的dấu ngang和dấu huyền。這樣,填詞時應該比較難和旋律協調。

用五度標記法表達的粵語聲調。至於國語越南語,可分別參見以上維基百科連結。

正所謂實踐是檢驗真理的唯一標準,我找了一首有粵、國、越三語歌詞的歌:陳奕迅的《明年今日》、《十年》,和越南歌手阮飛雄主唱的《Ngày Này Năm Sau》,從中選出二十字作比較。同樣的旋律,歌詞分別是:

粵:「明年今日 未見你一年 誰捨得改變 離開你六十年」
國:「十年之後 我們是朋友 還可以問候 只是那種溫柔」
越:「Ngày này năm sau, hẹn mà không thấy người,
Ôi đã không mong đợi,mình cũng đã khác rất nhiều」

(有文化輸入,也有文化輸出。很多廣東歌、國語歌,都有填上越南語詞,經過重新編曲,由當地歌手演繹的版本。情況有如香港八十年代為日本歌填上粵語詞:《月半小夜曲》、《千千闕歌》便是。)

為了方便比較,我把所有的音高都轉成頻率,用赫茲(Hz)表示。旋律容易處理:《明年今日》用A♭大調,上述「明」字是A♭3即207.65Hz,餘可類推。

但說話時的聲調卻是相對的:只要同一句子內每個字之間的相對音高正確,絕對音高並不重要。周星馳《食神》中,用不同語調說「乜咁啱嘅」,便是絕對音高有變,但相對音高正確的例子。填詞也是同理。側田《好人》裏面的三個「沒結果」可作參考:音高一句比一句高,但只要句子內的相對音高不變,便不會不協音。

粵語六調裡面,有四個可以是同一音高貫徹始終的。從高到低,是陰平、陰去、陽去、陽平,也就是「三」、「四」、「二」、「零」的音調;其中「三」比「四」大約高4個半音,「四」比「二」大約高3個半音,「二」比「零」又大約高2個半音。用唱名表示,大約是「la fa re do」吧。另外陰上(「九」)滑音完結時的音高大約在「三」、「四」正中間,用剛才的唱名來說則是「so」。

五度標記法裏面,「三」、「四」、「二」、「零」、「九」的音調分別是「55」、「33」、「22」、「11」、「14」。換言之,1-5的調值可以分別轉換成「do re fa so la」。國語、越南語的音調也用五度標記法標註,也可以這樣套用:例如國語第四聲便是「51」、越南語dấu sắc(「銳聲」)是「35」等等。

把這些相對音高翻譯成以頻率表示的絕對音高,有兩種方法:

a) 把第一個字的讀音對上旋律中相對的音高。粵語中「明」是陽平、「11」、「do」,便把「1」訂為207.65Hz,其餘十九字都以此作標準。
b) 在每一句的開端,都重新和旋律作對照。例如第二句首字「未」是「陽去」,「22」、「re」,旋律中則為C4/261.63Hz,便把「未見你一年」全句都作相應調節。餘可類推。

(a) 把相對音高翻譯成以頻率表示的絕對音高,只以第一個字為準

(b) 把相對音高翻譯成以頻率表示的絕對音高,每句句首重設

把音高變化畫成圖。驟眼看來,好像比較接近國語,沒有追求協音的樣子。可是我雖然會一點國語,卻不懂越南語。為免錯誤理解維基百科中的調值,便特意問了越南來的舊同事,請把那二十字的歌詞朗讀一遍。驟耳聽來,也是覺得沒有協音。

但是他卻說有。

於是我想,一個不會越南語的人單憑肉眼讀圖,用耳朵聽,恐怕流於主觀。於是我想到一個比較客觀的方法:計算讀音與旋律頻率之間差異的標準差(standard deviation)。做法有兩種:

i) 計算每個字的讀音和對應旋律之間的頻率差異
ii) 在旋律和讀音裏面,計算每個字與前一字的頻率差異(所謂取其一階差分,first difference),再比較兩者之間的分別。這種做法可能更能聚焦於相對音高的流轉:旋律上行時,歌詞聲調理應相應上行。

無論是哪種做法,如果旋律和讀音完全一致(例如「明年」永遠同音,「今日」永遠相差7個半音),標準差就是0。但這是不可能的:我們討論的是歌詞,不是朗讀。

每升一個八度,頻率便增加一倍,為了方便比較,便以其對數表達頻率。

讀音與旋律頻率之間差異的標準差

這樣一比較……好傢伙,越南語的歌詞似乎起碼和粵語版一樣協音。只是我不會越南語,對其高低起伏沒有感覺,聽不出來也看不出來,如此而已。國語詞毋須協音的原因,似乎是主要因為音高不多,而不是滑音較多所致。

我的越南朋友是對的。

不過,我只是比較了二十個字,難免有以偏概全的可能。近數十年粵、國、越三語同曲異詞者甚多,相信如果能以統計方法作分析,也會相當有趣。敬以俟之來哲。

[檢疫隔離第14天,在酒店自娛時作。旨在拋磚引玉,請各方好友不吝賜教。]

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臉書連結

參考資料:

Friday 11 December 2020

The tragedy of Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

I used to think Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO's head, had a pro-China bias. Now I think he has just been trying too hard to keep everyone happy in a futile quest to coax some of the most difficult leaders of our time into cooperating. 

To that end, he had said both Trump and Xi had "done a great job". Today, it has also been revealed that WHO conspired with the Italian government to suppress a damning report on the country. 

His position is not an enviable one. He

  1. has with only moral persuasion and no coercive power,
  2. leads an organisation that relies a lot on Western funding
  3. owes his own position with a lot of Chinese support through a one-state-one-vote procedure, and 
  4. was from and nominated by the TPLF, the former ruling party of Ethiopia which less than two weeks ago has just suffered a major setback in the ongoing civil war. He will need somewhere to go after WHO.

Could he have been more direct in 'handling' China,  Italy, the US, etc? Probably, but it might not have been intrinsically deplorable to take a position that it's better to coax countries and keep information flowing at least to WHO officials, who could then advise other governments how lives could be saved without naming the source. 

Of course, that strategy always carried a risk that he would become a useful fool to others. And, one would argue, he did.

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Sunday 6 December 2020

An ode to Hong Kong's 'pan-Western' cuisine

There's no such thing as 'inauthentic' food: a quick survey of Hong Kong's 'pan-Western' food with examples from my quarantine meals can tell you why. 

Exhibit 1: Beef spare ribs braised with red wine sauce, with a side of steamed rice, to start with a cream and butternut squash soup

Exhibit 1: The UK has 'pan Asian' eateries; Hong Kong has its fair share of 'pan Western' food too.

Take these beef spare ribs as an example. On the surface, the ingredients - celery, a red wine sauce - are unmistakably Western. But the side dish has been thoroughly localised.

Indeed, in most pan-Western eateries, one has exactly three side options: rice, pasta, or potatoes & salad. In that order. And by 'rice', it invariably means a portion of plain steamed jasmine rice. It's never basmati. It's never Nandos-style spicy rice either.

Exhibit 2: On the right is a localised borscht

Exhibit 2: This is a local version of the borscht - 羅宋湯 in Chinese, literally "soup of the Rus". White Russians took it to Shanghai with them after the 1917 communist takeover; the Shanghainese, in turn, took it to Hong Kong with them after the 1949 communist takeover. Somewhere on that journey cabbage replaced beetroot.

By convention, a local two-course pan-Western meal set starts with a soup. There are two and only two options: the 'red' soup, i.e. the house borscht, or a cream-based soup (eg Cream of Chicken / Mushroom) which is colloquially known as the 'white' soup of the day. The choice is often summarised as "red or white (soup)?" when waiters take orders. Don't confuse that with the similarly phrased question about wine.

Exhibit 3: Penne with beef brisket and shiitake mushroom

Exhibit 3: Yes, you're looking at some penne with beef brisket braised in rehydrated shiitake mushrooms. I think it's delicious. But, of course, this is not exactly Italian. I suspect my Italian friends might decry it as “inauthentic”.

In a similar way, Hongkongers in the UK often look down on British pan-Asian food: a kitsch mimicry of Chinese food that puts sweet and sour sauce on everything, the stereotype goes. Better stick with "authentic" Chinese restaurants and English pubs, we think (myself included).

The fashionable quest for “authenticity” could sometimes disparage hybrid cuisines as “fakes”. But they’re not. They’re fruits of cultural exchange over many years too. They may not be your taste - Wagamama has never been mine - but they’re no less “authentic”.

And we should know better.

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Saturday 5 December 2020

Arriving in Hong Kong during Covid

If I must come up with an analogy for Hong Kong's screening system, I would say it's like a linear video game with quite a few missions that have to be cleared one by one. 

  1. The tutorial level, of course, is having before boarding a 14-day quarantine package booking at a local hotel and – if you are arriving from a high-risk place such as the UK – a negative test result. Indeed, the thing I had been worrying most was not getting one at Heathrow. That was the only thing that could have derailed everything else.

  2. We were told on the plane that we have to fill in a health declaration form. Supposedly it could be done either on paper or online, but paper forms were nowhere found – not on the plane, nor could I see any upon arrival. They must exist somewhere, but I guess they want everyone to fill in the form and generate a QR code on their smartphone if they can. And that’s what I did.

  3. The next mission is a rather simple one. Passengers with a smartphone have to download an app called, rather plainly, StayHomeSafe. You could tell it was the designed back in the early days when everyone could quarantine at home. You have to show the form's QR code and the app to get past the first checkpoint. 

    First checkpoint (30.11.2020, 17:46)

  4. Then there's a security check for all arrivals. That’s something new.

  5. At another checkpoint, an official would verify the phone numbers one supplied on their declaration by calling it. As soon as your phone rings, one would be given a pink raffle-ticket-sized piece of paper, with the words “Tel OK” on it.

    "Tel OK"
  6. One then gets a welcome pack: two reusable CuMasks, and a 47-page bilingual 'Points to Note' for inbound travellers in a cozily unpretentious brown "On Government Service" envelope. Oh yes, an electronic tag on my arm too.

    Contents of my welcome pack

    A StayHomeSafe electronic tag

  7. Then one came to a sign that said: “obtain quarantine order”. In my case, I had waited almost an hour and a half before I could be seen by an authorised officer under sub. leg. 599E of the Laws of Hong Kong. I showed him the QR code to my form and my hotel booking. In exchange, I got two items.

    The quarantine order station has a typically Hong Kong set-up: unpretentious, pragmatic, does the job. Almost nostalgically symbolic. (30.11.2020, 18:50) 

    The first is a compulsory quarantine order. It is an A4-sized piece of paper which legally instructed me – under pain of a fine of HK$25,000 and a prison term of 6 months maximum – to take a PCR test, wait for its result at a designated place, and then go to and stay in the quarantine hotel I've booked.

  8. The second is a test kit. Yes, you've guessed it – the next mission is to take another Covid test. Following what illustrative videos showed, I went into a testing booth, made a “kruuuaaa” sound to bring up saliva from my throat, disposed them into a plastic test tube with reactants in it, and put the whole thing into a sealable bag marked as “BIOHAZARD”. 
    "BIOHAZARD": my saliva sample (30.11.2020, 19:32)

  9. Since my test result would only be available the next morning, I was given a room number in the government "holding centre" in which I would have to spend the night in. 

  10. At the end comes the familiar bits: immigration, baggage reclaim, and customs. The airport was eerily empty.

    An eerily empty airport (30.11.2020, 20:10)

  11. After 4.5 hours in the airport, a coach took us to the "holding centre", which used to be a three-star hotel in Tsing Yi with a great view over the container ports.

    The Department of Health also provided dinner and breakfast. Both took me down the memory lane and reminded me of school meals of old. 

    At 11 am the landline phone in my room rang. “You may go now“, the other end said. I quickly packed up my stuff, checked out, and – this might be the biggest "loophole" in the whole system – went to the quarantine hotel by my own means. And there I have been staying.

    A room in the Holding Centre. There wasn't any desk so I had to have my school-meal-style dinner on top of my suitcase. (30.11.2020, 21:48)
All in all, it's quite a draining and thorough process. But, I guess, It does also keep people of Hong Kong and their normal lives safer. 

Saturday 28 November 2020

Telling the Ts from the Ds

I suspect I've never pronounced the voiced stops /b/, /d/, and /g/ properly. 

Indeed, my ears could hardly distinguish them from their voiceless counterparts /p/, /t/, and /k/ when they are unaspirated - e.g. when they're behind an /s/ in English as in "spot", "stop" and "scar" or in Romance languages like French, Italian and Portuguese. 

Take the t/d set as an example. In English they correspond in fact to three sounds: 

  1. Aspirated voiceless "T" as in "top" (example)
  2. Unaspirated voiceless "T" as in "stop" (example)
  3. Unaspirated voiced "D" as in "dog" (example)

In French, Italian and Portuguese they usually correspond to #2 and #3 - a pair that’s barely distinguishable to my ears. Indeed, many of the videos I found on this topic were made to teach Spanish & Portuguese speakers how (1) in English is meant to be pronounced.

On the other hand, "T" and "D" in Cantonese and Mandarin apparently correspond to #1 and #2 above. Having grown up in a Cantonese-speaking society, perhaps I have been approximating D in English with #2 - or did I not? I cannot tell. 

The reality is as long as I stick to Cantonese, Mandarin and English, I could get away with not distinguishing #2 and #3: aspiration was enough to tell "T" and "D" apart in all three of them regardless of voicedness. Indeed, this distinction would not have come to my mind if I haven't been making forays into Portuguese recently. 

This probably also explains why the voiced consonants, B, D and G, are never used in Hong Kong place names - in the ears of 19th century Europeans, there were probably only different versions of Ps, Ts and Ks. For example, one could argue that Tung Chau Street has an aspirated "T" (i.e. #1), but Tung Chung has an unaspirated one (i.e. #2).  

These are, of course, not the most complex Ts and Ds there could be. Hindi, for example, has eight (!) consonants that all may sound like some forms of Ts and Ds to outsiders.

(I’m sure many of you have noticed this a long time ago, but it still came as a sort of minor epiphany to me this month..)

Mapping Ts and Ds from Cantonese, English, French and Hindi. In the case of Hindi, I set out in each cell first the dental consonant, then the retroflex. In the other three, they're all somewhat alveolar


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Thursday 5 November 2020

My first box of masks in 2020

Yesterday, on the eve of a second lockdown in England, I used up my first box of masks this year. 

It is one of the few boxes of EN14683 Type IIR masks I ordered on 26 January, i.e. 2nd Day of  Chinese New Year. Wuhan had just gone into lockdown. Long queues formed outside Hong Kong's pharmacies, often before sunrise, for surgical masks that may or may not come on sale at 10 or 15 times their previous price. Perhaps I'll want to send some to friends & family back in Hong Kong, I thought, so I went to Boots' website and placed an order with them. 

My first box of masks this year

A few hours later I tried to place another order but it got rejected. Boots had run out of surgical masks. 

When the masks arrived I posted them all save a single box of 50 to Hong Kong. Why did I do that? I certainly thought I most probably wouldn't need them, but, well, it wouldn't do any harm to keep a box on the top of my bookshelf anyway - just in case. 

Surgical masks stayed hard to buy for months. We learnt casting our nets beyond the UK with the help of national registries of online pharmacies established under the European Directive 2011/62/EU (thanks), but it seems many people did as well. In the end, I only managed to get 15 more boxes from Germany, which were also airlifted to Hong Kong. 

The situation was better with hand sanitisers. They had gone off the market for a week or two, but they were back by mid-February. In the few happy days when Chinese case number had started to fall, but outbreaks in Korea, Iran and Italy were still in the future, Boots even did a 'Buy 2 Get 1 Free' promotion with their pink, Valentines themed, 100mL bottles of sanitisers. I got a few dozens, kept one for myself, and posted the rest. 

It had turned out to be my only bottle throughout the first lockdown.

By March the flow of masks reversed. I received two boxes of unsolicited masks from my family: one I later found out to be of the anti-dust, anti-pollution variant, and another contained 50 individually-packaged masks. "Overpackaging!", I thought, but they did come handy on my trips five months later. 

In April I also received two homemade fabric from my friends in Cambridge. They have been very useful on short errand trips. 

But this trusty box of Type IIR masks remained my best for a long while. Sturdy, breathable and with a strong aluminium strip that prevents steaming up when properly fitted, I saved them for my longer trips away from home. I cycled with them to Putney, to Windsor and to Cambridge. I used them on my flights to and back from Heidelberg too. 

As England goes into lockdown again, it might be useful to reflect on how far we have come since the first one. Both disposable and fabric masks are now easily obtainable at reasonable prices, and I counted 70% compliance with masking in Stratford Centre the other day. Hand hygiene - and public hygiene in general - have improved. We may not be where we want to be, but we've come a long way. 

And we'll be alright. 

"We'll be alright", handwritten on a lunch delivery bag today. 

=========

Also on Facebook and Instagram

Tuesday 3 November 2020

"It's Covid, stupid"

 Controlling Covid rewards politically:-

  1. Korea's centre-left Democratic party won the highest number of seats by any party since 1960. 
  2. Ardern's Labour Party won a landslide in New Zealand. 
  3. Approval ratings for Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen have reached her all-time high - after nearly five years in office. 
  4. Australia's centre-right Coalition has recovered from the last bushfire season and is leading in the national polls again. 
  5. On the contrary, in the wake of Covid outbreaks in foreign workers' quarters, Singapore's ruling PAP has been returned to office with its worst result since independence. 

The message could not be clearer: it's not so much about left or right, global or local, climate change, immigration, tax, abortion, or China. These are serious topics - but at this moment, in many voters' minds, they rank far, far lower than staying alive and having normal lives. 

And voters know if they are still living normally under the current lot's watch. As a cigar-loving, incumbent-defeating President of the United States could have said, 

"It's Covid, stupid."

===

Also on Facebook


Tuesday 15 September 2020

木蘭時代嘅文化認同

上個禮拜,好幾位臉書上嘅朋友都分享咗一篇文章,話花木蘭其實應該係蒙古人,而唔係中國人咁話喎。

其實,將現代人對民族嘅睇法套喺古人身上,好多時都會衣不稱身。東西方都係:例如喺今日法國領土上面出世、應該講古法文多過古英文嘅英格蘭國王亨利第一,係「法國人」、「諾曼人」、定係「英國人」?呢啲例子,隨手執都有幾個。

講返木蘭。女人扮男裝從軍嘅事,可能有發生過都唔奇,但《木蘭辭》就肯定係經過咗好多重嘅文學誇大同埋修飾。而故事主角嘅原型,我覺得係北魏為咗防範柔然人入侵,喺北部邊境設立嘅軍鎮嘅人。當地人嘅血緣可能係鮮卑、漢、或者混血,但自成一種講鮮卑話嘅文化。

一、現存《木蘭辭》寫低嘅時候,已經喺中原流傳多年

就我哋今日所知,最早收錄《木蘭辭》嘅係南朝陳編成嘅《古今樂錄》。但詩裏面嘅地名,即係「黃河」、「燕山」之類,都係喺塞北,似乎係北朝傳過嚟嘅詩歌。背景最有可能就係北魏同柔然人打仗嗰陣時。不過,喺南北朝,單靠地名嚟推斷未必穩陣。南朝以華夏正統自居,將好多北面嘅地名搬咗去南面,講嘢嘅時候又會用中原嘅地名借代。例如《顏氏家訓》,就話過當時南朝人「上荊州必稱陝西」;陳受梁禪嘅璽書就寫「滅陸渾於伊洛」,都只係借代啫。

不過點借代都好,首詩入面一時稱呼統治者為「天子」(「歸來見天子,天子坐明堂」,一時就稱呼佢做「可汗」(「可汗問所欲,木蘭不用尚書郎」),應該都幾肯定係北朝傳入嘅民歌,其中嘅「可汗 / 天子」就係北魏皇帝:南朝人點借代,都唔會稱呼自己嘅皇帝做「可汗」。

但依家搵到嘅記載最早係喺南朝,可能亦都意味住傳世版係喺中原傳抄,甚至口耳相傳多年嘅版本。隨住時代前進,歷代嘅演義戲曲又為傳說加添咗唔少內容。

二、文治漢化,武力鮮卑化嘅北魏政權

北魏係由拓跋部鮮卑人創立嘅。而家學界主流好似覺得鮮卑語係屬於蒙古語系,但亦都有學者覺得同突厥語系有啲淵源。點都好,都係今日蒙古高原上面嘅遊牧民族啦。北魏自從立國開始,就逐漸吸納漢人士族入朝做官,但軍隊就係以鮮卑人同埋鮮卑化咗嘅各種胡人同少數漢人為主。

北魏崛起時軍隊嘅成份,可以喺451年(北魏太平真君十二年;南朝宋元嘉二十八年)北魏太武帝圍攻盱眙城嘅時候,向宋軍守將臧質嘅信睇得出:

「吾今所遣鬥兵,盡非我國人,城東北是丁零與胡,南是氐、羌。設使丁零死,正可減常山、趙郡賊;胡死,減并州賊;氐、羌死,減關中賊。卿若殺之,無所不利。」 (《資治通鑑》第126卷

呢度「我國人」係「我嘅國人」咁解:當時北方胡族政權都鍾意將本族人叫做「國人」。「胡」嘅狹義即係匈奴人。丁零、 氐人、羌人,都係當時中原嘅胡人。可見北魏嘅軍隊係以各種胡人為主,甚少漢人。有少少似早期羅馬嘅兵制:羅馬公民做正規軍,意大利附庸城邦嘅人就做支援兵。至於西西里、希臘行省嘅居民,一般嚟講唔參軍。

後來柔然人喺草原上面崛起,北魏就喺今日嘅內蒙古設置咗六個軍鎮(六鎮)。除咗用鮮卑本族人駐守之外,亦都徵發漢人士族子弟參軍。起初北魏首都喺平城(依家嘅大同),文武亦都冇乜分界,六鎮軍官往往可以入朝任職。但孝文帝「漢化」,將首都搬去洛陽之後,佢哋嘅地位就開始低落:

「緣邊諸鎮,控攝長遠。昔時初置,地廣人稀,或徵發中原強宗子弟,或國之肺腑,寄以爪牙。中年以來,有司乖實,號曰府戶,役同廝養,官婚班齒,致失清流。而本宗舊類,各各榮顯,顧瞻彼此,理當憤怨。」(《北史》卷五十六,《魏蘭根傳》

佢哋對孝文帝漢化運動嘅反動,係北魏最後內戰分裂收場嘅其中一個原因。東西分裂之後,兩邊都有試圖去恢復鮮卑傳統。

三、鮮卑變成北部邊境各族嘅尚武文化認同

但去到北魏末年,所謂鮮卑,可能已經變成一個文化認同嘅象徵:一個人只要講鮮卑話,崇尚北邊尚武嘅鮮卑文化,就係鮮卑人。

後來俾後代追尊做齊高祖神武皇帝嘅高歡,佢一方面自稱關東漢人士族渤海高氏嘅後人,但同時又能夠話自己三代人喺邊疆生活,同鮮卑無分別。一啲問題都冇。呢種現象,正正顯示咗鮮卑已經唔再以血源界定。

「齊高祖神武皇帝,姓高名歡,字賀六渾,渤海蓚人也。六世祖隱,晉玄菟太守。……累世北邊,故習其俗,遂同鮮卑」(《北齊書》卷一,《神武帝紀》上

高歡有幾鮮卑化?佢初初起兵討伐爾朱兆嘅時候,同樣係渤海高氏嘅高昂喺本鄉招咗一班漢兵。佢本能覺得漢人唔打得,提出要畀千幾個鮮卑兵比佢:

高祖曰:「高都督純將漢兒,恐不濟事,今當割鮮卑兵千餘人共相參雜,於意如何?」昂對曰:「敖曹所將部曲練習已久,前後戰鬭,不減鮮卑,今若雜之,情不相合,勝則爭功,退則推罪,願自領漢軍,不煩更配。」(《北齊書》卷二十一,《高昂傳》

到佢喺東魏執政嘅時候,高歡就曾經好誠實咁講,鮮卑人嘅責任就係打仗,漢人嘅責任就係耕田、織布、納稅:

歡每號令軍士,常令丞相屬代郡張華原宣旨,其語鮮卑則曰:「漢民是汝奴,夫為汝耕,婦為汝織,輸汝粟帛,令汝溫飽,汝何為陵之?」其語華人則曰:「鮮卑是汝作客,得汝一斛粟、一匹絹,為汝擊賊,令汝安寧,汝何為疾之?」(《資治通鑑》第157卷

以上種種,似乎都顯示北魏由始至終,直到520年代嘅內戰,鮮卑人同鮮卑化嘅各族軍人都係一個分開嘅武人階級。

其實呢一種兵民分治,「野蠻人」當兵,「文明人」交稅嘅社會組織形態,同差唔多時期,羅馬帝國滅亡之後喺歐洲出現嘅各日耳曼王國比較,可以話係異曲同工。

四、漢人鮮卑化,定係鮮卑人漢化?

但內戰連綿幾十年,鮮卑人死傷應該唔少。草原已經畀柔然人佔據咗,後來又落咗喺突厥人手上,唔會再有新嘅遊牧鮮卑人補充。到咗543年,喺西魏執政,後來被追尊做周太祖文皇帝嘅宇文泰,就開始要招募陝西漢人當兵:

太祖以邙山之戰,諸將失律,上表請自貶。[......] 於是廣募關隴豪右,以增軍旅。(《周書》卷二,《文帝紀》下

但軍隊係鮮卑化、講鮮卑話嘅諗法,係唔會一時三刻就消失。西魏於是要求新嘅鮮漢混合軍隊將士──即係後來陳寅恪所謂關隴集團──都改鮮卑姓:

魏氏之初,統國三十六,大姓九十九,後多絕滅。至是,以諸將功高者為三十六國後,次功者為九十九姓後,所統軍人,亦改從其姓。(《周書》卷二,《文帝紀》下

講開又講,高歡雖然有漢名,但係表字就用鮮卑話「賀六渾」。佢嘅對頭,西魏嘅宇文泰嘅表字就係「黑獺」。當時嘅名,好似係稱呼下級、官式場合先至會用到。同輩之間互相稱呼都係用表字。用鮮卑話起表字,有啲似我哋香港人洋名嘅用法,用法唔難理解。

到咗最後,係繼承西魏、北周嘅隋唐征服華夏。關隴集團裏面嘅家族,包括隋唐皇室,往往喺西魏、北周時期有鮮卑姓:隋文帝楊堅出世嘅時候姓普六茹,小名係梵文「那羅延」。唐高祖李淵嘅阿爺李虎,其實叫大野虎,今日嘅人可能會覺得有啲日系。直到隋朝建立,長安朝廷先至恢復漢魏衣冠,並且允許改咗鮮卑姓嘅人恢復漢姓。但去到唐朝滅亡,甚至五代十國嘅後唐,宰相名單仲係時不時會見到「豆盧」、「獨孤」之類嘅鮮卑姓。

結語

如果木蘭真係存在過,佢應該係喺北邊嘅六鎮長大,識講流利嘅鮮卑話(嗰度嘅共同語言),但亦都可能識講其他語言。以血統計,佢可能係鮮卑人、匈奴人、高車人、漢人,甚至係混血都唔出奇。

而佢會接觸到嘅同代人,對佢血統嘅興趣未必有我哋咁大。

===========

臉書連結
Discussion on Facebook in English (7 Sep 2020)
立場新聞版 (2020年10月9日)
立場新聞臉書貼文 (2020年10月9日)

巾幗不讓鬚眉:雜貨舖入面嘅以色列女兵。Rachel Papo攝於2004年

Tuesday 2 June 2020

喺喬治亞嘅一件小事

突然諗起三年前,去喬治亞旅行既一件小事。

嗰日我去到首都提比里斯,約咗喺嗰度嚟嘅大學舊同學,仲有佢嘅朋友,去城北的酒館敘舊。一開始,我哋只係喺度講返喺倫敦讀書嗰時嘅事,各自事業有咩發展,又或者其中一位最近屋企喺東面嘅Kakheti地方買咗個葡萄園咁啦。但過咗一陣,又飲咗一兩杯,竟然同佢哋傾起喬治亞政治。

作客人哋地方,又多年未見過,貿貿然講呢啲其實有啲魯莽。只好怪喬治亞嘅紅橙白酒實在好飲,葡萄美酒水晶杯確係有功效。一齊去嘅穆醫生冇飲酒,就唔會犯同樣嘅錯。

自玫瑰革命(2003年)以嚟,喬治亞都幾親西方。路牌都有英文,同年青人溝通基本上亦都可以用英文,周不時會見佢哋喺《經濟學人》賣廣告做投資推廣。街上面嘅歐盟旗同國旗差唔多咁多,唔講仲以為係歐盟成員國添。事實上,喬治亞連歐盟候選國都唔係。

提比里斯街景,可見歐盟旗(藍底十二星)與喬治亞國旗(五重十字)並列。自攝於2017年9月9日。
於是我講咗句,歐美雖然國力強盛,但係啲人民錫身,有咩事起上嚟唔可以靠佢哋出力幫拖。2008年俄羅斯同喬治亞打嘅南奧塞梯戰爭,2014年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭嘅克里米亞,歐美基本上都係口惠而實不至,恐怕唔可以齋靠佢哋。同檯嘅朋友就話,民主化之後政治、文化都係同歐洲比較夾,況且咁樣經貿上亦都有好處。

如是者,傾咗半杯酒嘅時間到,朋友平靜但係又堅定咁望住我,講咗句:「Well, it’s the path people of this country have chosen」。

嗰一刻,我先至留意到自己嘅失禮。作為一個外人,我或者係睇過吓啲新聞,讀過一本半本書,但始終冇用到同理心去代入喬治亞民族嘅情感,佢哋同俄國嘅多年恩怨,試圖同佢哋感同身受。

人喺一個共同體裏面,唔單止分擔痛苦、分享榮耀。每個成員憑自由意志行動嘅結果,都好受彼此嘅選擇影響;因此好合理地,會睇其他人做咩去決定咩先至叫係好,自己應該做啲咩。而群體成員嘅取向同偏好,亦都好難靠個體嘅力量喺一時三刻改變。但呢啲咁嘅諗法、背景,外邊嚟嘅人未必會即刻明白。

今日聽到抱怨,話香港搞成咁,出面嘅人、外面嚟香港住嘅人仲可以咁冷漠。講吓講吓,就諗起呢件事。

提比里斯的喬治亞菜館。自攝於2017年9月9日。
臉書連結

Monday 1 June 2020

珍惜中午的光線

啱啱個禮拜六,我30歲。雖然瘟疫流行,但慶幸各方好友仍然願意賞面,同我喺倫敦唔同嘅地方流水式咁野餐咗三次,真係感激不盡。

之前好似有一排興過喺Facebook寫生日感言,但我就咁多年都無寫過。唔係覺得無謂,而係因為懶:打開電腦入面嘅筆記,好似每隔一兩年嘅生日就會想寫感言,但全部最後都半途而廢。例如25歲嗰年,只係打咗標題「5x5」;冇記錯嘅話,係某位同事講笑,話25係重要嘅年份,因為在下一個平方數就要等到36喎。然後,27歲嗰年嘅標題係「霎眼廿七歲」(時日無多,但過日辰即係慢性自殺),仲配埋圖,又寫咗二百幾粒字,但最後又係無疾而終。舊年只係打咗一句,「霎眼廿九歲都啱音」,er……好彩冇加多粒人生污點。點都好,機會過咗就係過咗,以後都冇得再套用陀飛輪㗎喇。

有朋友喺WhatsApp度提到三十而立。我諗,孔子嗰陣時計虛齡,怕且舊年已經「立」咗。不過「立」係點解呢?朱子嘅註解,係「有以自立,則守之固而無所事志矣」,似乎即係對世界嘅睇法變得完整,有以自立,就唔需要再念念於所志咁解。如果係咁,好似有啲合理,但又有啲驚:越係睇落完整嘅嘢,就越難攝啲新嘅嘢入去。希望以後仲可以與時並進啦。

唔經唔覺,已經搬咗嚟英國十年有多。起初諗住可能只係暫時,點知就好似長沙灣個臨時家禽市場咁,臨吓臨吓,就臨時咗好多年。又有啲本應係長久不變嘅嘢,驟眼間就消失。

呢幾年不時覺得住厭咗倫敦,想搬去第二度住吓。無論係英文報紙定中文媒體,Twitter定係Facebook,都睇到覺得冇乜新意。尤其是係啲評論文章:有時睇到標題,已經大約知內容係點,呢一派會用咩切入點,有啲咩盲點咁。但世界雖然咁大,試問我又可以去邊?我又唔熟中英文以外嘅語言──雖然冇話唔可以學嘅,但要去到能夠睇佢哋嘅報紙,觀察佢哋嘅網民互動,應該都要啲時間同心機咁囉。

之前有居家令嘅時候,好多時出入都會租單車踩。今年收到個頭盔做禮物,對於周不時瞻前顧後,「又要威,又要戴頭盔」嘅在下,都真係幾啱。

生日有咩願望?其實過往一年咁嘅情況,叫人快樂都好似唔知想點咁。希望明年今日,可以喺重光嘅香港見到大家啦。希望在明天吖嘛。

左起順時針:City Hall, Regent's Park, Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park
臉書連結

Thursday 28 May 2020

Extendable work & study visas for British Nationals (Overseas)

Today Dominic Raab, the British Foreign Secretary, has announced that
[1] If China goes down this path and implements this national security legislation, we will be required to change the status of BN(O) passport holders and set in train arrangements which allow them to come to the UK [2] for longer than the current six-month period and to apply for extendable periods of 12-months [3] to work and study, which itself will provide a pathway to citizenship. 
(the numberings are mine)
There are three key elements in what he said.
  1. "if China goes down this path..."
    Comment: This remains conditional on the UK's future interpretation of Chinese actions.

  2. BN(O)s will be allowed to stay for 12 months rather than six
    Comment
    : This is rather meaningless.

  3. Extendable 12-month work & study visas that can lead to settlement

    Comment
    : This could be meaningful, but details remain scanty. In particular:
    (i) will an employer or university sponsor be required for the first twelve-month period? for extensions beyond the first year? This will mean a lot for people whose field is dominated by self-employment.
    (ii) what will be the taxpaying requirements or income thresholds on the route to ILR & citizenship, if any?
    (iii) at what level will the administration fee be set? This can add up if yearly renewal is required.
    (iv) probably the least important point, but will there be any recourse to public funds in the first 5 years? 
Some additional comments & warnings:

(a) Policy statements can be fluid. The details are ostensibly still being worked out. A lot of developments can happen between what was initially announced and what actually goes into law or Home Office guidance notes.

(b) Like the US announcement yesterday, this sounds like an acceptance that Hong Kong is now a lost cause. The UK may take some working-age, tax-paying Hongkongers who can and want to start a new life, but that's it.

(c) China will, of course, complain in public, but it may relish it in private: after all, those who are best placed to move are likely to be also those who are most able to organise and support the opposition in Hong Kong.

If enough middle-class democrats leave, the pro-Beijing camp might become a majority among those who remain. The older and more working-class democrats could in effect be abandoned.

(d) BN(O) registration was only open to Hongkongers who were born before July 1997, or those who had lived in HK for 7 years before that date.

Anyone under 23 certainly won't have it.

Anyone who moved to Hong Kong after July 1990 certainly won't have it - e.g. Edward Leung and Nathan Law.

Just saying.

====

[Postscript on 3 July 2020]

On 30 June 2020, Beijing imposed its "Law on Safeguarding National Security" on Hong Kong. In a statement in the Commons the next day, Raab confirmed that five-year visas for work and study with a pathway to citizenship will be made available to BN(O)s:
We [...] have now developed proposals for a bespoke immigration route for BNOs and their dependents. We will grant BNOs five years’ limited leave to remain, with a right to work or study. After these five years, they will be able to apply for settled status, and after a further 12 months with settled status, they will be able to apply for citizenship. This is a special, bespoke set of arrangements developed for the unique circumstances we face and in the light of our historic commitment to the people of Hong Kong. 
All those with BNO status will be eligible, as will their family dependents who are usually resident in Hong Kong, and the Home Office will put in place a simple, streamlined application process. I can reassure hon. Members that there will be no quotas on numbers.
This offer is slightly more generous than what was announced on 28 May 2020, but details remain scanty. Most observations above except (1) and (2) remain relevant.

====

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Wednesday 27 May 2020

When the US considers treating Hong Kong as if it is China

Today, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, under the provisions of United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 and the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act (HKHRDA) of 2019, reported to Congress that Hong Kong no longer merits separate treatment from China under US law.

My quick thoughts:-
  1. The US stance is more like "Hong Kong is now a lost cause. Let's cut losses, stop pretending it's autonomous, and stop China from exploiting this loophole".

  2. This is bad for the Hong Kong economy. After this, what's the point after all to pay Hong Kong rent and Hong Kong wages?

    If you don't really need links to the US market, you might as well move to Mainland China. It'll not be too different from Hong Kong by then, but you at least will be in a larger market with lower labour costs.

    If you do need links to the US market, then being in Hong Kong will be no better than being in Shanghai very soon. You might as well start planning your relocation: Singapore? Tokyo? Taipei? Even... Manila or Bangkok?

  3. This is bad for HK's freedoms in the short to medium term too. I'm afraid things will only get worse - for at least a few years - before it starts getting better.

    Since the demise of our manufacturing sector, Hong Kong's economy in the last 20 years or so has been built around being the conduit of China-Western trade and investment flows. This is founded on unspoken mutual consent - which is now no more.

    This will be a vicious spiral: the more the US deals with Hong Kong the way it deals with the rest of China, the lower Hong Kong's value to China will become, and the less China would be willing to keep HK distinct... and so on.
  4. This is, in a way, a classic example of how brinkmanship can unfold.

    When Congress enacted the HKHRDA's in November 2019, it has an annual certification mechanism that was designed, of course, to deter China from changing the status quo further.

    Then China pushed on with imposing a national security law in Hong Kong, betting on a muted response from the US.

    Then the US, with remarkable efficiency, started the HKHRDA processes in a matter of days,  probably in the hope of watering down the law's text.

    And one could (only) guess how this would end.
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Monday 25 May 2020

《洛陽伽藍記》讀書札記

一、孝文帝493年遷都洛陽後,北朝浮華便盡聚此地。其時好崇佛,貴戚顯宦都喜歡斥資立寺作功德,城內城外共有大小寺院(「伽藍」)1367所。《伽藍記》作者楊衒之追憶所聞所見,也是以寺中較大者作地標,由裏及表,敘述城內外物事,有如澳門、威尼斯以教堂作地名一樣。

二、舊曆四月八日佛誕,慶典連綿數天,較之時下中外過節習俗,看來也不遜色。

四月四日似乎是節慶的開端。宦官劉騰任大長秋(官名,大約是皇后的管家)時捐資在城內立長秋寺,又俗稱「劉騰寺」,其中有六牙白象負釋迦像,這天會出寺巡遊。隊伍前方有「辟邪師子導引」,似乎類似今日舞獅賀新春的習俗。出巡隊伍頗盛,有「吞刀吐火,騰驤一面;彩幢上索,詭譎不常。奇伎異服,冠於都市」,也難怪「像停之處,觀者如堵,迭相踐躍,常有死人」。當年人命好像沒那麼矜貴,死人只是尋常。

城中寺廟眾多,長秋寺雖不能專美,卻是作者評價各寺盛況的標準。城東宗聖寺的伎樂,便是「亞於劉騰」,以致「城東士女,多來此寺觀看也」。該寺像的特點是高,達三丈八尺。粗略換算一下,即是大約9米左右。我在南歐遇過幾次天主教聖像巡遊,好像也沒見過這種高度的聖像被抬出來過。即使是在今天,這麼高的雕像出巡,也會引人圍觀吧。城內昭儀尼寺雖然是「尼寺」,結構功能可能更像天主教的女修道院,但其伎樂也是相當盛大,「與劉騰相比」。

在意大利巴里(Bari)偶遇的天主教巡遊,自攝於2012年6月10日
四月七日是佛誕前夕,氣氛達到高峰。城南景明寺為宣武帝於景明(500-503)年間所立,有「七層浮圖一所,去地百仞」,換算過來超過168米高,應該是誇大了。這天,洛陽各寺廟千餘佛像在此集合。佛像的待遇似乎有差別:昭儀尼寺號稱塑工精絕的一佛二菩薩像抵達景明寺時,景明寺的三尊像會出迎。此等神像迎送的習俗,今天長洲太平清醮好像還有,不知是否有關。

至於四月八日佛誕正日,記載反倒不多。我們只知道,前一天在景明寺聚集的佛像會順序經宣陽門入城,到宮前受皇帝散花。也許這天就像英國的聖誕、以前香港新春一樣,大家都留在家中過節,或者參與宗教儀式,沒有上街遊樂的興致吧。

三、但城內外千三百伽藍,包括剛才提及各寺,都不如永寧壯觀。

永寧寺建於熙平元年(516年),是執權的靈太后胡氏所立。據楊衒之憶述,其中「有九層浮圖一所,架木爲之,舉高九十丈。上有金剎,復高十丈;合去地一千尺。去京師百里,已遙見之。」去地千尺大概是240米,如果屬實,那就是當時的世界第一高樓了。即使以其他資料為準,也是僅次於埃及大金字塔。

大概寺院佔地廣大,又位居城內,後來洛陽歷經兵革時,也就有了兵營、監獄的功能。建義元年(528年),爾朱榮領兵入洛,在河陰殺公卿千三百人,行廢立之事,便「總士馬於此寺」。永安二年(529年)五月,宗室北海王元顥借南朝梁兵攻入洛陽,也「在此寺聚兵」。後來爾朱兆俘囚孝莊帝,起初也是把他關在永寧寺的門樓上。

永熙三年(534年)二月,永寧寺受雷擊,起火燒毀。從起高樓到消失,前後只有18年。當時人顯然記得深刻:千載以下,我們還讀到「火初從第八級中平旦大發」、「時有三比丘赴火而死」,皇帝下令禁軍一千人救火的細節。

同年七月孝武帝元修與權臣高歡決裂,西逃長安。十月高歡立元善見為帝,遷都於鄴。洛陽遂荒廢。

根據Youtuber Ollie Bye製作的影片,永寧寺矗立時為世界第二高建築物,僅次於埃及大金字塔。
四、南北相輕,自古皆然。楊書中謂南朝為「偽朝」,以江南為「荒服」,南人來投者則稱之「投化」、「背逆歸順」,自然是標準操作,但尚不及今人以禽獸昆蟲互稱。南朝有人寫書提及洛陽城東某石橋,說是某朝某年造,他憑記憶中先前所見碑銘更正之餘,更不忘指責他們「舊事多非親覽,聞諸道路,便為穿鑿,誤我後學」,可以想見當時風氣。

但孝文帝遷都漢化,也免不了要依賴北來南人革新制度。例如王肅,作者在提及他所捐的正覺寺時,便說「時高祖新營洛邑,多所造製,肅博識舊事,大有裨益,高祖甚重之,常呼王生」,其尊重可見。

南北飲食也相當不同。北方喝乳酪、食羊肉,似乎畜牧業甚盛。而茶,當時被視為南人的飲料。他寫王肅逐漸歸化,是這樣的:
「肅初入國,不食羊肉及酪漿等物,常飯鯽魚羹,渴飲茗汁。京師士子道肅一飲一斗,號為漏卮。經數年已後,肅與高祖殿會,食羊肉酪粥甚多。」
對於褒北貶南,楊氏有時好像太過用心。書中記城東景寧寺事時,便引用帶兵護送元顥入洛的南朝梁將領陳慶之說:
「自晉宋以來,號洛陽為荒土,此中謂長江以北盡是夷狄。昨至洛陽,始知衣冠士族並在中原。禮儀富盛,人物殷阜,目所不識,口不能傳。所謂帝京翼翼,四方之則,如登泰山者卑培塿,涉江海者小湘沅。北人安可不重?」
這段話好像不時會用來引證「孝文帝遷都後,北朝勝於南朝」。按陳慶之在洛陽時為永安二年(529年)五月。而楊氏記城內永寧寺事時,就說去年(528 / 建義元年)四月十三日河陰之變「新經大兵,人物殲盡」。不知陳慶之所見留在城中,打算依附北海王的「衣冠士族」、殷阜人物有多少?且別說陳慶之此後便回到南方,在河北的作者所聽聞的語錄,又有多可信了。

但作者反正是信了。

五、楊衒之記永安三年十二月三日(531年1月6日)爾朱兆囚殺孝莊帝時的感嘆,其中有不忍盡言者。

亂局初起時,公卿千餘人於河陰之變罹難,楊氏在外得免。之後有北海王短暫入洛之事。到孝莊帝在殿中擊殺權臣爾朱榮,又帶領洛陽城內士庶擊退爾朱氏的餘部,一時間的氛圍是短暫的亂局剛過去,撥亂反正的時刻已來臨,美好的昔日將要回來。爾朱兆反攻,也被隔在黃河對岸。想不到,沒多久有天黃河「水淺,不及馬腹」,叛軍便就此過河攻入城。

楊衒之寫到這一段的時候,雖然也有修辭和當世政治的考慮,但他所受到的打擊也躍然紙上。他說黃河水淺如此,是「書契所記,未之有也」;沒可能的,天時怎麼會這樣幫助逆賊呢?難道經史所載都是虛構的嗎?他哀嘆道,「若兆者,蜂目豺聲,行窮梟獍,阻兵安忍,賊害君親;皇靈有知,鑒其凶德,反使孟津由膝,贊其逆心!《易》稱天道禍淫,鬼神福謙,以此驗之,信爲虛說。」

這是禮崩樂壞後,短暫回光返照,然後核心信仰再受現實事件重擊後的絕望。

之後出身北方邊疆的武人宇文泰、高歡分別在長安、鄴城擁立魏帝,但怎比得上「皇魏受圖,光宅嵩洛」後的文士朝廷呢。

二十五年後,他在南方的士族同儕庾信在《哀江南賦》裏寫到江陵中否,也表現出同樣的絕望。侯景作亂,梁元帝繼位而擊敗之,期間雖有兄弟相殘,但總算光復舊物。誰知不旋踵西魏兵攻入江陵,驅城內百姓數萬入關為奴。中興道銷,「天何為而此醉」,亦有此不忍盡言者在。

自此,中原南渡者及其後代也不再主導南方。南方本土武夫陳霸先化家為國,其皇族甚至有循環再用謝安墓(對,就是「王謝堂前燕」的陳郡謝氏)葬母之舉,可見時代已翻過新的一頁。

故事結尾,北方邊疆武人普六茹那羅延在589年擊敗南方本地土著的代表陳叔寶,重新混一華夏。

六、「當你不可以再擁有的時候,你唯一可以做的,就是讓自己不要忘記。」

楊衒之在洛陽荒廢後十三年因事重臨舊地,只見「城郭崩毀,宮室傾覆,寺觀灰燼,廟塔丘墟」,便動心記下他所見聞的一切。他害怕一代風華,終會被後世所遺忘。

七、最後推介兩本我喜歡的魏晉南北朝史著作。

另外多得維基文庫中國哲學書電子化計劃,很多市面難求的舊書都可以免費讀到,真好。

自製的PDF書
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臉書連結
楊衒之《洛陽伽藍記》原文

(2019年3月19日粗略筆記,至2020年5月25日寫畢。)

Friday 15 May 2020

歷史考試所為何事

昨日香港文憑試歷史科考試,有一道考題惹來外交部駐港公署、香港教育局先後譴責,蔚為奇觀。 臉書上有朋友說,希望這件事終歸會成為歷史,化為他日的一道評論題。

我想,如果小弟是考生,對於「考評局出題是否恰當」,答案大綱可能會是這樣的:

1. 【起講】大體而言,我認為是恰當的。
先立標準:考試的目的是甚麼?就高考歷史科來說,是考核考生是否(一)掌握課程內歷史資料,(二)分析綜合資料的能力,(三)解釋表達自己分析綜合所得的能力,並分出高下,供大學、僱主參考。

2. 【論點1】這條問題可以達到目的:
(一)「並就你所知」,要求考生表達其對課程內容的掌握。
(二)提供資料,意在逼使考生臨場分析,不能靠事前死記硬背。
(三)香港文科考試的評分參考,一向提醒閱卷員,「考生言之成理,即可給分」。

3. 【論點2】問法中肯,無論考生意見為何,都有公平展現其能力的機會。[如果有時間,可引以往中化、歷史科題目,舉例說明。]

4. 【反駁可能的反對論點】或曰... [教育局已經寫了出來,不用自己想,真好]。
指責者似乎覺得,此題目的答案顯然是「弊多於利」,沒有討論空間。如果是這樣,如前所述,題目問法中肯,答利多於弊的考生,又怎麼會有「言之成理」的可能性呢?他們難道連這樣的「道路自信」、「理論自信」也沒有嗎?
如果考題有討論空間,那就能考核考生能力了,更好。
除非反對者的醉翁之意,是明知有討論空間,卻不讓人討論。那這題也答不下去了。

5. 【小罵大幫忙】這條題目只有8分,大約就是16分鐘的時間,卻要考生展述其對45年間事的意見,未免過於強人所難。如果很多考生都沒有充分答題的時間,就難以達到分出高下的目的。
[其實8分出這樣的大題目,才真的值得譴責!!! ]

6. 【論點3】再者,香港高考題目向來比大陸、台灣來得自由有創意... 可解釋為香港獨有優勢。[可引以往中化、歷史科題目舉例說明,下省數百字]

7. 【結論】雖然題目不完美,有瑕疵,但大體來說是恰當的。

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按:

一、以往數十年,無數人詛咒過考評局的死亡。在下曾經想為舊高考寫篇辯護文,最後也是無疾而終。想不到有這樣的一天,竟終於寫了半篇為考試講公道說話的文章──這刻只希望下次執筆時,仍未要寫訃文。「原來在快樂中便不必明白快樂」,誠哉斯言。

二、這是大綱。如果是以前的高考中化、歷史試卷,每條題目有大約一小時作答,自可再加論據論證。

題目全文爲:
「1900至45年日本為中國帶來的利多於弊」你是否同意此說?試參考資料C及D,並就你所知,解釋你的答案。(8分) 
其中資料C是1905年日本法政大學校長梅謙次郎致清廷的文章,支持中日教育合作;資料D是1912年1月黃興寫給日本政客井上馨的信,以及中華民國臨時政府與三井財閥於1912年2月簽訂的一份合同。內容是日本借款支持民國革命政府之類。
詳情可參考明報報導

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Wednesday 13 May 2020

點解太歲紀年嘅名係訓讀

一向都覺得如果唔係粵語裏面有音冇字,唔應該搵個古字去代替。一嚟好多時搵錯,二嚟市面上如果已經有用開嘅字,只會徒增疑昧。

今朝早喺Facebook上面見到有人反駁百度百科上面「仲有」應該寫做「重有」嘅講法,竟然講到太歲紀年法,話『《爾雅》「太歲在辛曰重光。」係「更加光」,所以應該讀做「頌光」』喎。咁我覺得幾得意,喺午飯時間打咗啲嘢諗住參加討論咁啦。點知打完,原post已經唔見咗。雖然話題既無聊又小眾,但打咗就無謂嘥,都係放出嚟拋磚引玉啦。

先講結論:我傾向推測太歲紀年法嗰堆名,無論係「大歲在甲曰閼逢」定係「在辛曰重光」,都只係天干地支嘅讀音,冇意思。

換言之,即係好似日文嘅音讀同訓讀咁,「山」音讀為「san」或者「sen」,但訓讀則為日語固有詞的「yama」。同樣地,可能上古華夏,至少某啲地方,喺用嚟紀年嘅時候,「甲」、「乙」、「子」、「丑」會訓讀做「閼逢」、「旃蒙」、「困敦」、「赤奮若」。

點解咁諗?好簡單,呢堆歲名唔單止《爾雅·釋天》有,《史記·天官書》都有,但係有啲唔同,例如:
甲:「閼逢」(爾雅);「焉逢」(史記)
乙:「旃蒙」(爾雅);「端蒙」(史記)
寅:「攝提格」(爾雅);「攝提格」(史記) [一樣]
酉:「作噩」(爾雅);「作鄂」(史記)
《淮南子》都有,但我見基本上都係不出《爾雅》、《史記》範圍。

可見雖然用嘅漢字唔同,但讀音係類似嘅。如果呢啲本來係訓讀音,就解得通:Victoria可以係「維多利亞」,亦可以係「域多利」。《爾雅》嘅作者同司馬遷係各自記低當時儒生(口耳相傳)嘅讀法,用咗唔同嘅漢字,實在正常不過。

呢個亦都可以解釋埋點解先秦文獻見唔到佢哋:因為寫出嚟嘅時候,你只會見到「甲子年」,但當年嘅讀法可能係「閼逢困敦」(嘅上古音)。去到戰國、西漢,啲人先至覺得要抄低口耳相傳嘅讀音。《爾雅》本來就係解經用嘅字典,而《史記》、《淮南子》都有記錄當時人所有知識嘅雄心。

不過亦都要帶返個頭盔先:辛嘅歲名係「重光」(爾雅) 或者「昭陽」(史記) ,讀音唔同但意思可以互訓。可能有原本嘅意思。但亦都可以本來係訓讀,但之後俾人當有意思咁整個代稱比佢。霍光封博陸侯,於是古人連「霍亂」都可以用「博陸」代稱,有咩唔得?至於睇落有意思嘅音譯,可見「延文禮士道」、「詩歌舞街」。

到咗今日,我哋仲會用互訓嘅詞嚟做代稱,例如「清汶」。

呢堆名喺後世嘅用途,主要係用嚟故作高深,宋人好似特別鍾意.... 例如司馬光嘅《資治通鑑》,卷一嘅第一句就係「起著雍攝提格,盡玄黓困敦,凡三十五年」。係咪覺得好勁?

其實即係卷一嘅內容:「由戊寅年,去到壬子年,總共35年嘅事」。係咪即刻冇咁型呢。

文天祥有首五律個名好長,係《歲祝犁單閼,月赤奮若,日焉逢涒灘,遇異人指示以大光明正法,於是死生脫然若遺矣》,即係用歲名記晒年月日,睇落型到爆。但係,,,, 等陣,《爾雅》叫呢啲做「歲名」咋喎!跟住落嚟就係「月名」:「正月為陬,二月為如......十二月為涂。」按「月赤奮若」即係丑月,即係十二月,係咪應該叫「涂」而唔係「赤奮若」呢?

可見宋人基本上係當係天干地支嘅別名咁嚟用..... 過咗宋朝,呢個潮流亦都好似過咗。

結論?
(一)《爾雅》嘅「重光」可能冇意思,根本證明唔到廣東話嘅「仲」應該點讀。基本上係irrelevant。
(二) 家陣係咪「重光」讀做「仲光」就重光到先?係嘅我跟你讀又有乜所謂喎。

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延伸閲讀:

Thursday 7 May 2020

欲買桂花同載酒

早前追憶多年前騎車遊北國事,雖是自娛,但也有意想不到的收穫。久未見面的朋友傳訊說,看着三兩情侶、大學生在初夏的威川中撐船,覺得就像是電影鏡頭一樣,當年北上怎麼不請他也去;我說那是你回港之後的事。況且瘟疫過後,你隨時也可以過來呀。別忘了帶上配偶,我說,兩位我都很久沒見了。

他說這大不同呀,最好的旅程都是大學時代的事。那時在外所見、所想都常覺耳目一新,世界就好像等著我們去發現一樣。現下外遊,已經沒有那種感覺了。我說,這教我想起一首詞。不,這次不是林夕啦,是南宋劉過填的《唐多令》:
蘆葉滿汀洲。寒沙帶淺流。二十年、重過南樓。
柳下系舟猶未穩,能幾日、又中秋。
黃鶴斷磯頭。故人今在否。舊江山、渾是新愁。
欲買桂花同載酒,終不似、少年遊。
我說,載酒這個古今都不可或缺,但買桂花幹甚?又不能佐酒。往昔與朋友泛舟劍川,往往是在瑪莎、升記買紅白酒,佐以煙肉、煙魚、薯片等物,但從來沒有買過花。當然,如果「桂花」是杞子桂花糕的代稱,那麼配上葡萄美酒夜光杯,或者黃酒大閘蟹,也是好的。

他說,「買桂花」也許隱喻尋春:「一春長費買花錢,日日醉湖邊」即是。我說是也不奇怪呀,尋歡是古時文人至愛。(按:本港保存華夏文化甚多,古風君子不少:有才子廁紙包頭,有文人向記者抱怨成名後不能召妓, 不見容於當世風俗,甚可惜)他說,可能是因為以前「娶妻娶德」,文人要找紅顏知己,唯有投向花街柳巷了。我說,最近和另一位朋友談及別事,人家提及成語「雲英未嫁」的來源,羅隱的《嘲鍾陵妓雲英》:
鍾陵醉別十餘春,重見雲英掌上身。
我未成名卿未嫁,可能俱是不如人。
「可能」和「俱是」。

說著說著就過了子夜,香港已是佛誕假期。我們互道了佛誕吉祥,便又各自忙。

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圖文不符:鄧寇克海灘,攝於2019年7月27日,17:36

Sunday 3 May 2020

意猶未盡與過猶不及

其實我早該知道的。

兩個禮拜前第一次和Deryck Chan做臉書直播,講英國這邊瘟疫下的生活、抗疫生活之類。是我一向有留意的題材,材料用起來還算輕車熟路,和各方網友交流了差不多兩小時,自我感覺良好。於是今日再回到臉書做直播,繼續談相關的題材。

陳兄有備而來,解讀疫情數據時得心應手。我卻開始自覺是在無的放矢,重複已經說過的事,彷彿勉強充撐時間。朋友私訊說,要不要喝點酒;我倒了一杯紅酒,喝了幾口,談著先前準備的書單、歌單,但這種感覺還是揮之不去。

就像無數作品的續集一樣:緣起全因意猶未盡,終於過猶不及。

有人從不續作,寧願每次從新開始,或者是值得學習的自知之明。

之後和朋友聊起陶傑、蕭若元,同感敬佩:日復日,週復週地生產節目(題材還往往是香港政治),竟然不太覺過份重覆,還有不少人願意聽,實在是不容易。這「是天賦,也需要意志」。

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Wednesday 29 April 2020

頑固的車軚追了萬里 先發現一早洩光氣

今天無意中又再聽到陳奕迅的《黑暗中漫舞》,循環了不下十次。網上解詞者大多鍾情林夕「猶如自卑水銀瀉地」、「左腳高舉到白髮齊眉」的精巧比喻,又或者「學跳舞 / 有福氣 / 手差點撲地」和「學愛你 / 美不美 / 天黑黑到地」之間的互文。我卻因親身經歷的緣故,有感於「頑固的車軚追了萬里 / 先發現一早洩光氣」。

某年夏天,考過迄今為止最後的大學考試,便和單車、背囊一起,搭清晨的火車北上,往(號/自)稱北國牛劍的對衡訪友。我抵埗後發現,這肯定不是在說地形:牛津、劍橋皆在平陸,依津渡而建城,對衡卻是建在山丘上。威川西迴至城下,受山勢阻擋,只得折向南流,在城南先西拐、再北轉,三面繞城而流。在此處騎車,常覺徘徊在似苦又甜之間——然而之後幾天,都是帶着單車,在北國的丘陵地過的。

威川。左方隱約可見的城堡、教堂,即對衡城中心。攝於2013年6月7日 16:13
不久便與朋友離城出郊野騎單車。我們的打算,是從東海岸的紐卡素起行,花兩天沿哈德良長城遺址西行,沿途遇見合眼緣的酒館便進去吃飯休息,直到西岸的卡素爾城。谷歌地圖上兩地間只有騎行六小時的距離,應該是綽綽有餘。

然而,谷歌地圖原不為騎便宜的鋼架單車,背上有六天行裝,頸前有相機的行者而設。我們在早晨穿過紐卡素無人的街,經訪各色名目的古蹟和酒館,到了日暮時分,才發覺預訂的民宿在山丘……後的山丘上,鼓盡餘力才得到。隔天吃了早餐,便出發沿長城西行。三座城堡、幾百隻牛、幾千隻羊之後,出了狀況。

在路上與行裝合影,2013年6月9日 19:27
天空湧起密雲,先前的藍天都不見了。

而且單車的輪子每轉一圈,便會顛簸一下。對,車軚爆了,一早洩光了氣。所以才會頂到氣嘴的螺絲。

卡素爾看來是踩不到的了,還是搭火車吧。站在六公里外的山下,手頭上又沒有時刻表,不知道來不來得及,想來還是騎車去穩妥。趕路時一邊擔心趕不上火車,一邊又怕這樣太傷輪框,如是者顛簸了幾里路,忽然看見陽光自密雲間滲出,普照灰綠的地,心想希望在人間,吾輩必濟!果然,趕到有火車站的小鎮,就發現一個多小時後才有火車經過,剛好夠時間到酒館吃晚飯。

下山時所見雲隙光,攝於2013年6月10日 18:41
後來輾轉遷回倫敦工作,日常出入都靠地鐵,單車也在某次搬家時不見了。近月瘟疫流行,無別事可做,每個週末都租單車鍛鍊自娛,是以為記。

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Friday 10 April 2020

舊時遊記初稿

讀大學的時候,我才剛離港不久。眼中所見物事都是新鮮的。每次外遊,總會把中學時買下的活頁紙釘成一疊權充記事簿,寫下所見、所聞、所思,打算以後有空時便整理成見得人的遊記。那時在途上的閒暇不多,或晚飯後在旅舍寫,或在長途火車上寫。用的都是單詞、短句,中英夾雜也無妨:不過是給自己看的備忘嘛。

那陣時也有記下每筆支出的習慣。一來書生盤纏有限,當時貨幣兌換也沒現在方便,身上的外幣現金往往只是剛好足夠;二來與友同遊時方便分帳;三來,各地所見食貨之價,也是種旅行見聞。

後來遊記一篇也沒有寫成,人倒是住了下來。

再後來隨心所欲買了本Moleskine的旅行日誌,只寫了半頁,便和昔日手跡一同閒置儲物櫃一角。

要不是收拾舊物時看見,我都忘記了。

給自己看的旅行日誌

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Friday 13 March 2020

英港抗疫不忘初心

面對疫症,無論英國定香港都不忘初心,非常consistent。

香港醫療有樣嘢周不時都攞出來講,就係好多時因為文化上嘅緣故,以及病人家屬嘅願望,好多時就算康復無望,都會為病人插喉吊命:用咗醫院資源之餘,病人亦都未必好受。呢種現象嘅root cause ,就係香港人重視人命。由得啲「明明救到嘅人」死,香港人唔容易接受。

但亦都正因為重視人命,香港人面對今次疫情嘅時候,可以話係全民總動員,不惜時間或金錢上嘅代價,用盡所有方法抗疫。雖然喺中國大陸側邊,despite林太,但至今仍然只係得百幾宗確診個案,簡直係奇蹟。

而英國呢邊,好耐之前大家已經接受咗資源有限,公營醫療系統要有所取捨。具體做法,係生命有價:如果救返一年嘅健康人生要使多過£20,000-30,000,就係唔抵,公家亦都唔會俾。整體來講,英國人文化上接受咗病人如果救唔番,就應該幫佢安詳咁渡餘年、離世,吊命唔人道亦都唔抵。就算係Alfie Evans單嘢,都係美國福音派關心多,英國輿論可以話係冇轉向。

到面對武漢肺炎疫情,「救人要睇成本效益」呢個行之有效嘅原則當然大派用場。停課?咁樣雖然會減少傳播(佢哋自己計條數,係如果停課13個禮拜以上,可以將高峰減低10-15%),但亦都會搞到好多在職父母要停工返屋企湊仔(呢邊冇外傭)。其中包括好多醫護之餘,更加會衝擊經濟。結論係暫時睇落唔抵。唔止政府咁講,連唔鍾意保守黨政府嘅《衛報》訪問嘅學者都係咁講

呢幾日粗略推算過英國政府「延緩疫情爆發」策略如果成功,比起任由疫情急速爆發,對經濟嘅影響有咩分別。結論係長期抗戰會死少啲人,但亦都有經濟代價:求其作左幾個假設,除開條數,發現原來每人每年都係英鎊兩萬幾…… 如果你同我講,政府唔係冇得再做多啲,而係計過唔抵,我信。

不過,我好奇佢條數嘅confidence interval有幾大……

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Wednesday 11 March 2020

新冠病毒不只是個公共衛生危機

國家領導依賴專家去處理疫情,但真正艱難的決定無關醫療,而關乎政治。

(Tom McTague,美國《大西洋》雜誌,2020年3月5日。原標題作《The Coronavirus Is More Than Just a Health Crisis》)

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板主譯注:日前英國政府表示「兩個星期內」或會要求帶有新冠肺炎病徵者自我隔離。何解?主事者顯然已預期個案數字還會上升,但當下患者尚少,判斷急於行動弊多於利。

如何權衡利弊?生命何價?現時英國官方模範答案是:健康人生每年值£20,000-30,000稅金。

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就連民粹政客,原來也需要專家。

英國政府本週宣佈抗疫計劃時,帶出的潛台詞便是這樣。首相約翰遜在記者會上表示國家防疫資源足夠,公眾毋須恐慌;左右分別站著的不是其他政界人物,而是首席醫療顧問Chris Whitty和首席科學顧問Patrick Vallance。病毒危機很有可能進入下一階段,他說,而政府會跟隨科學辦事。

此刻的諷刺意味,論者自然沒有錯過。在他們筆下,約翰遜關於脱歐效用的謊言一個接一個,又主動出擊貶損那些警告選民別冒這個險的「磚家」,有如把國家哄騙入脫歐騙局的江湖術士。內閣大臣高文浩,約翰遜政治上的密切盟友,曾在脫歐公投期間宣稱:「來自各種字母簡稱組織的專家不單止總是搞錯情況,卻總是覺得他們才知道甚麼最好。這個國家的人民已經受夠『磚家』了。」如今約翰遜登上大位,卻轉身面向那群磚家,希望他們能防止遠方大地起的火燒到後欄。

這裏還有一層更深刻的諷刺意味。不管約翰遜有多雙重標準,專家也無法為他化解危機。在記者會上,兩位科學顧問自己也解釋了:現實是當爆發規模至此,應對時的挑戰已經無關技術,而是關乎政治。所有決定都得在不確定的迷霧中做出。

站在約翰遜左右,兩位科學顧問把現實和盤托出。他們告訴記者,問題不簡單,不只是應否下令全國只問安全,凡是看起來有利防疫的都做。嚴苛措施帶來的社會成本也得納入考量。舉個例子,如果學校停課,醫護就有可能得請假回家照料自己的孩子,從而損害醫療系統應對疫情的能力。要是我們要求老人家儘量別接觸他人,他們的家人該如何碓保他們不致因此而陷入社會隔離(social isolation)?不是每個人都能在家工作,所以強制所有人在家工作的成本不會平等到落到每一個人頭上。按工作時數支薪的兼職雇員損失的收入遠比長工為多。我們真的應該期望社會中收入最低的人群要為一個本意保障全體的國策承起更重的負擔嗎?

一場爆發,好比說今次的新冠病毒危機,正好揭櫫一個社會在其珍惜的價值之間如何取捨,以及在習以為常的的自由暫時缺失時她能如常運作多久。在倫敦這裏,政府大方承認其能力有限:多年來人民連來自國家的基本限制也不習慣,政府能加以圈限的空間不多,可能很快就捉襟見肘。

如果政府希望帶領國家冷靜渡過疫情,他們首先就得向公眾坦承這個基本事實:任何應對新冠肺炎的措施都不只關乎科學,也關乎社會和政治的考慮,不能缺乏國民的廣泛認同。

例如,泰晤士報最近報導英國政府抗疫計劃時,指內閣大臣及官員正在「權衡是否應容許疫症急遽爆發,以換取經濟更快反彈,還是限制大型聚會及公共交通,以挽救更多人命。」這是執政者必須面對的醜陋現實。正如歷任前首相白高敦、前工黨黨魁文立彬幕僚的Stewart Wood在推特上所講,「這種深沉的功利計算,政府中負責危機應對的部門不能不思考,卻絕不應談論。」

在英國,這種關乎生死的抉擇,正是國立衛生卓越機構(NICE)專家的日常工作。基於科學證據,此專業機構為各種醫療程序——手術、造影、藥物、療法等等——衡工量值,並決定應否透過國家醫療系統(NHS)免費為英國居民提供。如果某個程序被視為太昂貴,那就算它具有一定程度的健康效益,例如能延長壽命或者減少痛楚,政府也不會向公眾提供,因為納稅人的錢用在別處更值。換言之,醫療資源交由專家配給,以確保有限的政府撥款能用得其所。

現實總是殘忍。為了衡工量值,醫療程序的效用——對病人生命質或量方面的改善——得用公式換算為「品質調整生命年期」(quality adjusted life years, “QALYs”)。一個QALY,相當於一年的健康人生,或者兩年健康品質被評定為0.5的人生。一般來說,用20,000-30,000英鎊(約200,000-300,000港幣)換回一個QALY的醫療程序會被視為具成本效益,值得政府提供。更昂貴的醫療程序往往不會獲批。

實際上,英國政府已為生命打了價碼。

正如Stewart Wood解釋,政府的職責林林總總,各式需求總是在競爭有限的資源。在應對新冠肺炎的同時,政府也不能不處理別的議題:例如癌症、洪災、罪案,當然還有脫歐。討論經濟影響和人民健康之間如何取捨,固然令人不快,但政府的公共開支終歸還是要取之於經濟增長。換言之,決定如何應對新冠肺炎時,必須把對經濟整體的影響納入考慮。因為歸根究底,政府長遠來說讓人活下去的能力也會受到經濟表現影響。

未來幾個月,約翰遜和其他民主國家的領袖,都面對同樣的挑戰。他們得讓公眾信納,為抗疫所作的短期決定合理、公平而又公道,也在社會、經濟和醫療方面的長遠利益之間取得平衡。所謂領導才能,正是面對這種挑戰的能力。

基辛格曾經說過,治國者的難處在於,容易的決定都已經讓下級做了,只剩下艱難的留給總統、首相、或總理作決定。這是設計使然。「真正的兩難問題刺痛人心,關乎靈魂。」他這樣寫。領袖往往面對兩個不好的選擇;治國才能,也就是挑中沒那麼壞的答案的能力。

約翰遜的兩難說來不難懂:從新冠肺炎疫情中拯救生命,值得多少時間、金錢和社會動盪為代價?他必須以合理的期望衡量實不實施某些措施引致的可能後果。[穆琳註:醫生日常。]他的下屬會模擬不同政策下的各種場景:犯罪率、消費減少、職位流失、稅收損失、醫療系統應對其他疾病的壓力——以及新冠肺炎疫情引致的死亡。但他終歸要在黑暗中下決定。

基辛格這樣描述領袖所面對的難題:「有些決定,在所有的評估都只是猜測時就必須作出,當時也無從證明其必要性。因為等得輿論成形,往往已經太遲,災難或許已經到來。這是最困難的議題。」

約翰遜,以及美國總統川普、法國總統馬克龍和德國總理默克爾,作決定時都沒有預知未來的水晶球,後人卻將帶着後見之明評判他們。公眾會問:他有否過度反應,或者反應不足?他和緩了波動的局面,還是引發了恐慌?他是展現了領袖才能,還是展現了無能?他在其位善其事了嗎?當他試圖維持公眾對其政府的信心,約翰遜的第一反應是找專家求助。那群專家卻馬上將球發回來。

Bloomberg / Getty as used by The Atlantic
****

板主譯按:英國以QALY得失決定生死,香港讀者或會覺得冷血。可是世間資源有限,長壽慾望無限,線總得畫在某處。沒有QALY這類量化標準,討論「應否為瀕死者插喉續命」這種問題時容易流於道德,也許很難達至有益的結論。

後記:多謝穆琳不吝撥冗相助,翻譯了文章大半。譯得差的地方,都是我的。

(Translation Exercise 3.5 / 翻譯練習 3.5)

臉書連結

Translation released under CC BY-SA 4.0 

Friday 6 March 2020

To mask or not to mask? My take on the face mask question

Summary: Most experts from Geneva to Hong Kong agree that masks offer some imperfect protection to the wearer, but they do stop carriers of the coronavirus from giving it to anybody else.

Global supply of masks is limited. Governments and societies must choose between (i) trying to get a mask on everyone's face to prevent transmission and (ii) accepting an outbreak will come and save stock up for healthcare staff and the sick.

****

First of all, the facts. They don’t conflict with each other as they may first appear.

1) CDC and WHO advise that wearing a face mask improperly won't protect the wearer. Of course. Hooking your sunglasses on your top won’t protect your eyes from the sun either.

2) Wearing a face mask alone won't fully protect the wearer: the eyes are still unprotected and can come into contact with infected droplets.

3) Many governments (eg Singapore’s) recommend people showing symptoms to wear a mask so they wouldn’t infect other people e.g. when they cough or sneeze.

4) This coronavirus is known to have an incubation period. For up to 14 days, an infected person could be going about their life before any symptom show up.

5) If everyone's wearing a mask, then those who have caught the virus but haven't been showing symptoms have a much lower chance of infecting others: droplets can infect people through their eyes, but they almost certainly come out of noses and mouths which face masks would cover.

This is the approach publicly recommended by health experts in Hong Kong eg Prof Pak-Leung Ho as the FT quoted. It is also the approach a large proportion of Hongkongers chose to follow despite what the government said.

Indeed, it was on the same ground Prof Ho recently advised against wearing a certain type of N95 masks that filters air that goes in but not the air that goes out.

6) This is summarised succinctly by Dr Michael Ryan, WHO’s executive director for emergencies: “masks don’t necessarily protect you, but they do - if you have the disease - stop you from giving it to anybody else.”

****

So, where does the world stand now? We may want to observe the following:

7) If a government advises universal mask-wearing, its people may expect it to secure supply at price similar to pre-crisis levels.

[This is, of course, against economics. Who’s paying for overtimes? If new factories were built, who is paying for the capital costs? And what about risk premium in investing in new factories?]

8) The world can produce around 40m face masks per day before Jan. China accounts for around half of that. Taiwan was 3rd largest and is now 2nd largest producer. Both have effectively stopped exports. So did major producers like Thailand and South Korea.

To put things into context: Taiwan’s population is 23m; China’s 1,386m.

9) Therefore I can understand why many governments want to reserve limited supply for their medical staff and discourage mass use of face masks. Singapore is one of the few that has been honest with its citizens on this.

10) When governments in Mainland China, Taiwan and now Korea recommended universal mask-wearing, they also introduced measures to ramp up production.

11) Taiwan’s fellow market democracies may learn more from studying its case than China’s. The government there bought mask-making machinery and then gave them to existing manufacturers in return for face masks of the same value. Effectively, a government-brokered financing lease. This way it managed to expand daily production from 4m to 10m within a month.

12) Hong Kong’s government never officially recommended universal face mask wearing. Its leader Carrie Lam even tried to tell civil servants not to wear them "unless they feel unwell" - but the next day, if my memory served me well, half of the officials at a press conference she chaired donned a mask. Hongkongers chose to listen to experts, not unelected politicians.

They learnt it the hard way: Hong Kong saw 299 or 38.6% of the global death toll from 2003 SARS. Once bitten, twice shy.

13) As a Hongkonger myself, I wish no other country had to learn lessons the same way.

14) So how has Hong Kong been getting its masks? Its own production - run by the prison service to supply government agencies - was a paltry 50,000 per day for a population over 7m. But when prices skyrocketed from pre-crisis $1 (HKD, same henceforth) each to $10-20 each, the private sector and civil society came to the rescue.
  • Small pharmacies got them overseas, probably at a higher price than usual wholesale price, and sold them with a high margin.
  • Large pharmacy chains like Watson's sourced them overseas and sold them at cost, earning praise and brand value.
  • Politicians and activists of all shades sourced them from around the world. Did Joshua Wong, that activist of international fame, not bring masks back from Honduras? There’s no better time to prove to the people that your lot is more competent than the other.
Benefits - of political, brand, or immediate monetary kinds - mobilised the private sector and civil society groups and they brought face masks back to Hong Kong. Charities then bought them for the poor. Prices have since gone down to a more reasonable $5 each. Adam Smith’s invisible hand works.

15) Therefore, unless France has enough productive capacity for its own medical staff, I think its decision to requisition face masks will only exacerbate the shortage in that country. Now, no supplier in their sound mind will want to route their deliveries through France.

When incentives are right, market and individuals are usually better at buying stuff and bringing them home.

16) Admittedly, many of these masks bought by Hongkongers at higher-than-usual prices were baseline stock held in other countries eg Germany, Honduras, UAE, Turkey. Now they may need them a lot more than they thought.

17) Hong Kong is a relatively rich place. As the coronavirus goes global, it (and other East Asian countries that chose universal mask-wearing) may have priced medical staff in poorer countries out of essential protective gear. That’s apparently also why the WHO does not advise universal mask-wearing.

****

What about here in London?

18) Back in early Feb, my friends and I were trying to buy face masks for re-export from UK wholesalers. Most were already telling us they had no stock to sell us because their order books have already been block-filled by the NHS.

I get that the UK government / NHS might have wanted to appear inactive so that they don’t stoke a panic. But, in fact, they don’t seem to be that inactive.

19) Because the NHS has been stocking up, I suspect whatever you can still get on the high street these days are parallel-imported overseas. You probably won’t be competing with the NHS.

20) So, to wear or not to wear? I’m no health professional. All views in this note are that of a layman, ie my own.

My take is that wearing a mask wouldn’t hurt you. If you’ve never worn one, it’ll be good to find and watch a video online that teach you how to wear it properly beforehand. It probably would reduce the risk you face more when you’re on a plane or in the tube. In any case, a face mask almost certainly keeps some of the air pollutions in the tube out.

But a humble surgical mask won’t make you virus-proof. It wouldn’t and shouldn’t replace good hygiene either.

P.S. I’ll try my best to stay at home if I show symptoms. If I have to go out, I’d wear a mask to avoid infecting others, even if at the end it turns out to be just common cold.

A woman at Green Park station on the London Underground tube network wearing a protective facemask. PA Photo. Picture date: Wednesday March 4, 2020. See PA story HEALTH Coronavirus . Photo credit should read: Kirsty O'Connor/PA Wire
A mask-wearer at a London airport. Source: Sky
****

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Original inspiration:


Wednesday 4 March 2020

The coronavirus approaches Britain

My kind friends in Hong Kong read on social media that shelves went empty in UK supermarkets and asked if it's their turn to ship health supplies over.

So I took stock this morning. I still have 47 surgical masks (which went out of stock in major pharmacies here.. a month ago?). I intend to reserve them for higher-risk situations, eg on a plane or when worst comes to worst. That should hopefully last a month or two.

Hand gels are locally made here in the UK. When they last ran out in late Jan, most pharmacies managed to restock in a week or two. Boots even did a buy-2-get-1-free sale on them. I have 2 medium bottles and hopefully that should last till stock returns to normal.

I also checked out my local Sainsburys this morning and found it pretty well stocked. BBC did report supermarket shelves going empty in the West Country due to good old British "wintry conditions". My heart is with people there.

As usual, too much context is lost in translation. This applies to both Far Eastern news as reported in Western outlets, and the other way round as well.

As a precaution to any short term supply disruption I'd start maintaining a stock of non-perishable necessities at 2-4 weeks' usual run rate. For now most if not all can be sourced here in the UK locally.

Stay safe & healthy, my friends

Well-stocked Sainsbury's in Stratford Centre, morning of 4 March 2020. Hopefully this will last... 
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