Today Dominic Raab, the British Foreign Secretary, has announced that
(a) Policy statements can be fluid. The details are ostensibly still being worked out. A lot of developments can happen between what was initially announced and what actually goes into law or Home Office guidance notes.
(b) Like the US announcement yesterday, this sounds like an acceptance that Hong Kong is now a lost cause. The UK may take some working-age, tax-paying Hongkongers who can and want to start a new life, but that's it.
(c) China will, of course, complain in public, but it may relish it in private: after all, those who are best placed to move are likely to be also those who are most able to organise and support the opposition in Hong Kong.
If enough middle-class democrats leave, the pro-Beijing camp might become a majority among those who remain. The older and more working-class democrats could in effect be abandoned.
(d) BN(O) registration was only open to Hongkongers who were born before July 1997, or those who had lived in HK for 7 years before that date.
Anyone under 23 certainly won't have it.
Anyone who moved to Hong Kong after July 1990 certainly won't have it - e.g. Edward Leung and Nathan Law.
Just saying.
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[Postscript on 3 July 2020]
On 30 June 2020, Beijing imposed its "Law on Safeguarding National Security" on Hong Kong. In a statement in the Commons the next day, Raab confirmed that five-year visas for work and study with a pathway to citizenship will be made available to BN(O)s:
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[1] If China goes down this path and implements this national security legislation, we will be required to change the status of BN(O) passport holders and set in train arrangements which allow them to come to the UK [2] for longer than the current six-month period and to apply for extendable periods of 12-months [3] to work and study, which itself will provide a pathway to citizenship.
(the numberings are mine)
There are three key elements in what he said.
Some additional comments & warnings:- "if China goes down this path..."
Comment: This remains conditional on the UK's future interpretation of Chinese actions. - BN(O)s will be allowed to stay for 12 months rather than six
Comment: This is rather meaningless.
- Extendable 12-month work & study visas that can lead to settlement
Comment: This could be meaningful, but details remain scanty. In particular:
(i) will an employer or university sponsor be required for the first twelve-month period? for extensions beyond the first year? This will mean a lot for people whose field is dominated by self-employment.
(ii) what will be the taxpaying requirements or income thresholds on the route to ILR & citizenship, if any?
(iii) at what level will the administration fee be set? This can add up if yearly renewal is required.
(iv) probably the least important point, but will there be any recourse to public funds in the first 5 years?
(a) Policy statements can be fluid. The details are ostensibly still being worked out. A lot of developments can happen between what was initially announced and what actually goes into law or Home Office guidance notes.
(b) Like the US announcement yesterday, this sounds like an acceptance that Hong Kong is now a lost cause. The UK may take some working-age, tax-paying Hongkongers who can and want to start a new life, but that's it.
(c) China will, of course, complain in public, but it may relish it in private: after all, those who are best placed to move are likely to be also those who are most able to organise and support the opposition in Hong Kong.
If enough middle-class democrats leave, the pro-Beijing camp might become a majority among those who remain. The older and more working-class democrats could in effect be abandoned.
(d) BN(O) registration was only open to Hongkongers who were born before July 1997, or those who had lived in HK for 7 years before that date.
Anyone under 23 certainly won't have it.
Anyone who moved to Hong Kong after July 1990 certainly won't have it - e.g. Edward Leung and Nathan Law.
Just saying.
====
[Postscript on 3 July 2020]
On 30 June 2020, Beijing imposed its "Law on Safeguarding National Security" on Hong Kong. In a statement in the Commons the next day, Raab confirmed that five-year visas for work and study with a pathway to citizenship will be made available to BN(O)s:
We [...] have now developed proposals for a bespoke immigration route for BNOs and their dependents. We will grant BNOs five years’ limited leave to remain, with a right to work or study. After these five years, they will be able to apply for settled status, and after a further 12 months with settled status, they will be able to apply for citizenship. This is a special, bespoke set of arrangements developed for the unique circumstances we face and in the light of our historic commitment to the people of Hong Kong.
All those with BNO status will be eligible, as will their family dependents who are usually resident in Hong Kong, and the Home Office will put in place a simple, streamlined application process. I can reassure hon. Members that there will be no quotas on numbers.This offer is slightly more generous than what was announced on 28 May 2020, but details remain scanty. Most observations above except (1) and (2) remain relevant.
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- Wikipedia Entry on British National (Overseas) and the evolution of Hongkongers' British Nationalities
- The memoranda exchanged between China and the UK on 19 December 1984, which set out each country's stance on Hongkongers' nationality.
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